When it comes to Betfair strategies, in my option this is by far the easiest to learn, the easiest to execute, and it’s without doubt my favourite strategy to use. The idea of this strategy is very simple, you back U2.5 goals at the start of the game, as the game remains 0-0 you reduce the amount you have in the trade and slowly take out a profit.
The strategy is similar in the way that you can decide how you use it, you can wait until the 10th minute and cash out your whole stake, you can reduce your stake by 10% every 5-10 minutes, you can even green up (meaning you take all your risk out of the trade) and then let it run. However, below I will set out the strategy that most people use when trading the U2.5 goals.
Strategy
The U2.5 goal strategy is one of the most popular strategies in betfair trading. It is a very simple trade, you can make it complex if you want to by including some loss reduction, however in this post we will only be covering the basic U2.5 goal strategy.
To maximise profit with this strategy you want a game that is expecting goals (Over 2.0 odds) but a game where both teams normally score from the second half onwards, the best way to find games for U2.5 is to look at the half time / full time scores.
As you can see above with Burnley v Watford, at half time both teams favour a 0-0, whilst at full time it’s not as common. This game would be decent for the strategy, but ideally you’d want more 0-0 at half time, roughly 30%, then you’d also want less 0-0s at full time, ideally less than 20%.
Firstly with this strategy you’re going to get into the market just before kick off. With your full stake.
The next step is to wait. Some traders aim for 10% and are out within 5-10 minutes, whereas other traders might prefer to wait for 20 minutes, or even the whole first half.
It is worth noting however that with the U2.5 goal strategy, you’re looking to avoid a goal, if one comes you should cash out, you can either instantly cash out, or if the game seems to have calmed down you can wait 5 minutes and reduce your loss a little – although this is risky!
If you’re looking to stay in the market for longer than 10 minutes I would recommend you take some of your stake out of the trade, you can do this by laying the U2.5 goal market by the amount you want to remove from your stake.
This strategy has nothing else to it, you enter the market at the start of the game, stay for as long as you feel comfortable – whilst reducing your risk if you don’t feel 100% sure, and then cashing out for a loss if a goal comes.
Profit / Loss
Personally with U2.5 goals I’ve done this strategy a huge amount of times. The profit I’ve gained when successful has been between 10-35%, I normally aim for 10% then look to get out of the trade.
However, when it comes to losses, which I have so far got around one loss for every 24 wins, although this is a really good return I wouldn’t expect that the be the same long term. However in the losses I’ve had the amount of my stake lost normally sits around 50-60%.
Conclusion
U2.5 goals as long as your game selection is accurate can be an incredible strategy. Goals in the first half are lacking, in most cases, this strategy allows you to take advantage of this. The only issue that arrives is if you hit a few losses in a row. Although I do have a loss retention strategy that will be uploaded soon.