The over 1.5 goals strategy in betfair trading is one of the simplest strategies to learn which is why it is ideal if you’re a beginner to betfair trading. The premise is very simple, once you’re in the market all you need is one goal, from either team, then you can cash out for a profit, simple!
Introduction
As you’ll have seen in the video, when it comes to betfair trading I’m a complete beginner, which is why I loved the over 1.5 goal strategy, it’s simple to understand what’s going on and really easy to use even if you’re not familiar with the betting markets. You don’t need a huge range of different triggers to happen during the game, you’re either waiting for a goal, or waiting for your exit point. It is very simple and easy.
Strategy
Simple Example
- Take the total number of goals in the game at the 30th minute and add 1.5. This is then the market you’ll be trading in.
- Add 50% of your stake into the overs market.
- Add an additional 20% as the second half starts.
- A further 20% at the 55th minute.
- The final 10% at the 65th minute.
- If a goal comes at any time in the game cash out.
- If a goal hasn’t come by the 70th minute regardless of the size of loss, cash out.
So what is the over 1.5 goal strategy?
It is very simple, firstly you’re going to wait until around the 30th minute. At this point you’ll take the total goals in the game and add 1.5 to it. This is going to tell us what market we will be trading. 0-0 = Over 1.5 goals; 1-0 = Over 2.5 goals; 1-1 = Over 3.5 goals, and so on. The reason we add 1.5 to the number of goals is to allow there to be some profit, if you’re trading the over 0.5 goals when the game is 0-0, the profit will still be there but it won’t be as much, and probably won’t be worth doing, so adding the 1.5 to the total goals will help you achieve more profit with the strategy.
Once you’ve got the market you’re trading in you’re then going to take 50% of your stake. When it comes to any form of betfair trading you should always have in mind a pre-determined stake, never go over this! That’s how we make sure we don’t just chase our losses. So with your stake in mind you’re going to split that in half, and trade 50% of it at the current market price for Over 1.5 goals (or whatever market you’re in).
The next step is to wait for a market change. Here you’re either waiting for a goal and if one comes you’ll instantly cash out for a quick profit. Or no goal by the start of the second half. If no goal has come by the second half you’re then going to start adding the second 50% of your stake.
How you add the second 50% is upto you. Some users add the whole 50% at the 50th minute, some add 10% of their stake every 5 minutes from half time. Why do we stagger out our stake with this strategy?
Well, as you can see from the graph to the left that is the price for Over 2.5 goals in a game, the two drops are when a goal has been scored, this is how we make our profit.
If you invested all your stake just after the first drop when it is at it’s lowest, then waited for the second goal, the gap between the bottoms of the two drops isn’t actually that large.
Whereas if you gradually added your stake, you will more than likely have had some of your stake towards the peak just before the second drop. The bigger the drop = the more the profit. Obviously this can be annoying if the goal comes while you only have 50% of your stake in as your profit will then be reduced again, but it will still be profit.
How you split your stake up is completely up to you. When I do over 1.5 goals, I normally split my stake up, 50% 30th minute, 20% start of the second half, 20% 55th minute and the final 10% in the 65th minute. The odds change quite rapidly in all markets when you get into the second half that’s why it can be very beneficial to spread it out.
What happens if no goal comes?
If there has been no goal by the 70th minute, you cash out and take your loss. You might think this is a little early to cash out when you consider how late most goals come in games, however, with the over 1.5 goals strategy, even if you get a goal late on 75th minute +, then you’re not going to be looking at a great profit, in some cases you will still be at a loss because the market you’re in will need another goal before closing.
If you’re doing the over 1.5 goal strategy, and you’re still in beyond the 70th minute then you’ve made an error. Although the loss might be quite large it’s vital you get out of the market so you don’t lose your full steak.
What’s the profit/loss for this trade?
Now because everyone splits their stakes differently and goals come at different times it can be hard to estimate an accurate profit for the strategy. When I’ve been on the losing end of the strategy my losses are normally between 60-75% of my total stake. Whereas my profits have ranged from 5% to 64.5%. However the majority of my profit does tend to be within 5-40% depending on the time of the goal.
Conclusion
Would I recommend the over 1.5 strategy? It depends massively on the team, if the team is an inform team that scores late on and is playing a poor side, then yes, if the team is well known for having 0-0s or the opposition is well known for holding out attacks then no.
This strategy like all will benefit from research, you need a team that scores ideally in the second half, but not beyond the 70th minute. It can be quite a niche team to find. Most goals come in games really late on and this strategy doesn’t allow you to take advantage of that unless you’re willing to risk your whole steak. It can be a profitable strategy, but game selection as always is absolutely key.
